Under $100k — Why Bitcoin Broke Down and What Happens Next

November 14, 2025

Bitcoin’s recent slide, dipping back under $100,000, is best understood as a liquidity- and flow-driven reset, not a structural breakdown. Institutional demand via ETFs has weakened just as long-term holders have started to take profits. Meanwhile, risk-on equities, especially in high-beta tech, have also cracked, and macro uncertainty has increased. The result is a coordinated retreat, not a panic crash.

This still feels like a mid-cycle correction rather than a cycle top. On-chain metrics are relatively stable, supply dynamics haven’t broken down, and the long-term trend remains intact, but momentum has clearly faded, and the market is now highly dependent on whether flows and liquidity return.

Key Points

1. The high-beta trade turned risk-off. The slide below $100K mirrors a broader unwind in high-beta tech and momentum names. AI, semiconductors, and small-cap growth all cracked, reinforcing a cross-asset de-risking wave. As volatility spiked, hedge funds and systematic strategies cut exposure across the board.

2. Flows weakened at the exact wrong time. ETF demand softened just as long-term holders began taking profits. Large outflows hit Bitcoin ETFs in late October/early November, removing the strongest source of incremental bid. With LTH distribution rising, the absence of fresh ETF inflows mattered more than any fundamental change in Bitcoin itself.

3. This remains a mid-cycle reset, not a structural break. On-chain supply is stable, leverage has been flushed (over $19B liquidated on Oct. 10), and perp markets are now balanced. Sentiment is cautious, not distressed. The long-term trend is intact, but the next leg up requires renewed flows, stabilizing tech, or an improvement in macro liquidity.

Risk Assets and Momentum Rolled

Bitcoin's decline isn't solely due to its own issues; it mirrors the broader downturn in speculative stocks. AI, semiconductors, and small-cap growth sectors all faltered, contributing to a wave of risk reduction across various assets. As volatility surged, systematic and hedge fund strategies reduced risk across the board, impacting Bitcoin's demand significantly.

ETF Flows Under Pressure

ETF flows are once again a central factor. According to recent reports, Bitcoin ETFs saw $600 million in outflows in a single week around late October / early November. These outflows signal that institutional conviction is softening at a crucial moment. Without a steady, structural allocation from ETFs, BTC becomes more exposed to selling pressure, especially from profit-taking LTHs.

Long-Term Holders Selling

On-chain data continues to show long-term holder (LTH) distribution. While BTC’s long-term base has held up, profit realization is accelerating. Exchange balances are creeping higher, suggesting some of the withdrawn BTC is making its way back toward liquidity pools. This pattern aligns more with a mid-cycle consolidation than the end of a bull run, but without a fresh buyer, distribution could become more problematic.

Macro Liquidity Mixed

Macro conditions are no longer an outright tailwind. Rate cut expectations have fallen: market-implied odds for a December cut dropped sharply, tightening financial conditions. At the same time, while liquidity (global M2) may be bouncing, the risk environment feels fragile. This isn’t a macro breakout, it's a wait-and-see regime.

Sentiment Shows Extreme Fear

Market sentiment has deteriorated dramatically. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has plunged to ~10–20, which sources classify as extreme fear. Analysts interpret this as more than just a reset, it’s a deep risk-off mood. Events like this often coincide with sellers reaching exhaustion. Indeed, on‑chain and flow data show signs that distribution is slowing and some long-term players are holding steady. Rather than a collapse, this may be a tentative bottoming phase, but one that’s highly dependent on renewed ETF inflows or a stabilization of macro conditions.

Leverage & Perps Have Reset

In the October 10 flash crash, more than $19 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in under 24 hours, one of the largest such events in market history. This activity came primarily from crypto-native leverage, not forced TradFi de-risking.

The result is a derivatives market that’s now clean, balanced, and reset with no hidden leverage overhang and no collateral pressure. The washout leaves Bitcoin better positioned to rally once flows and risk appetite return.

Trend Survives

BTC remains tethered to major moving averages, but the break under $100K has shifted the near-term narrative. Technicals suggest a consolidation phase: key support zones now sit near $90K–$95K, while resistance looms back in the $105K–$110K range. Without renewed ETF flows or a macro reset, volatility may stay elevated in this range.

Why Bitcoin Broke Down — and What Comes Next

Putting it all together, Bitcoin’s drawdown is a cross-asset risk adjustment, not a failure of crypto fundamentals. Weak ETF flows, LTH selling, cautious sentiment, and macro uncertainty are all combining to pressure the market, but none of these signals suggest a broken cycle.

What needs to happen for the next leg:

1. Spot ETF demand must return or stabilize.

2. High-beta equities need to regain footing to restore broader risk appetite.

3. Macro conditions must loosen — rate cut expectations, liquidity, and policy clarity are all key.

The long-term trend is intact, but the next leg up requires renewed flows, stabilizing tech, or an improvement in macro liquidity. If those pieces align, Bitcoin could resume its upward march, potentially retesting the previous highs. But if flow stays muted and risk aversion wins over, this could turn out to be a prolonged consolidation phase.