top of page
Macro analysis


Bitcoin Pulled Back — But the Macro Case Remains Strong
November 5, 2025 Bitcoin just corrected… but the setup for a potential rally into year-end is still very much intact. In this quick 2½-minute walkthrough, we break down why the same forces powering equities and gold may soon rotate into Bitcoin. Breakdown 0:00 — Bitcoin pullback ≠ broken trend 0:15 — Market snapshot: S&P, Gold, BTC YTD 0:35 — The rate-cut playbook — why non-recession cuts matter 0:55 — Liquidity turning up: gold reacted, Bitcoin lagged 1:15 — Mega-cap

pgw
Nov 51 min read


Rate Cuts Ahead – Fed Moves Set the Stage for a Crypto Surge
October 27, 2025 The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, 10/29 at 2:00 PM, with markets showing a high probability of another cut in December . Coupled with the possible conclusion of quantitative tightening (QT) , these measures indicate that the macro liquidity environment is poised for a change . For crypto investors , liquidity has historically been the key factor influencing digital asset performance. Key Points: Rate cuts a

pgw
Oct 273 min read


CPI Alert — How Inflation Could Move Crypto Markets
All eyes are on Friday’s (delayed September) CPI print, a potential inflection point for risk assets and digital markets. Inflation remains the key driver of monetary policy expectations, which in turn dictate liquidity flows and the near-term risk-on/risk-off cycles that move Bitcoin, Ethereum, and crypto-linked equities. Energy prices have eased, shelter costs remain sticky, and services inflation continues to defy broad disinflation trends. At the same time, global liquidi

pgw
Oct 222 min read


Revisiting the 2025 Debasement Trade
The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion , reigniting the “ debasement trade ” as investors seek scarce assets to hedge against fiscal strain and currency dilution. Persistent deficits, rising money supply, and warnings from voices like Ray Dalio have renewed focus on gold and Bitcoin as alternative stores of value. While gold continues to lead performance this year, Bitcoin’s rising correlation and ETF inflows suggest a convergence may be underway. Key Points Debt

pgw
Oct 22 min read


Impact of a Government Shutdown on Bitcoin?
A government shutdown isn't just a Washington headache, it's a potential tremor for global markets, including Bitcoin. With Polymarket odds hitting 80% for a lapse, the clock is ticking on fiscal year-end funding. For advisors guiding crypto-curious clients through this fog, the question looms: Does Bitcoin buckle under shutdown stress, or does it thrive in the chaos? Past episodes offer clues, but 2025's matured market adds nuance. While risks of volatility and delays are re

pgw
Sep 293 min read
bottom of page